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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.