🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."